Frugal Calculators

Rental Property vs. Investing

The same capital into a rental property, or into the market. Both sides put in the same money — matched dollar for dollar, every month — and every assumption is shown.

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The property wins by $140,176 after 30 years.

The property only wins if you hold it at least 10 years. Before that, the market is ahead.

Cap rate
5.30%
Cash-on-cash, year 1
-2.56%
DSCR
0.88
Monthly cash flow, year 1
-$150
Cash invested day 1
$70,200
Landlord net worth
$1,001,826
Investor net worth
$861,650
Property value at horizon
$631,088
Equity after selling costs
$593,223
Rent collected
$1,234,297
Lost to vacancy
$78,785
Total interest paid
$272,042

Net worth over time

$0$250,456$500,913$751,369$1,001,8261y6y11y16y21y26y

InvestorLandlord

What would have to be true?

The calculator answers “what happens?”. This answers the question underneath it: how wrong would you have to be for the answer to change? Each row holds everything else exactly as you entered it and finds the value where the verdict flips.

If the rates are different

The property wins in 3 of 6 scenarios, investing in 3. Your own assumption lands on the the property side. The rows are ordered by the gap between investment return and property appreciation, the strongest single driver once everything else is held fixed.

Finely balancedThe 6 scenarios split evenly between the property and investing — the table is close to evenly divided, so this result should not be leaned on.

ScenarioReturnAppreciation Rent growthGapResultAfter 30 years
Housing-ledProperty outruns the market, as in the run-up to 2006.5.00%6.00%4.50%-1.00%Property+$1,716,598
Balanced growthBoth grow modestly and at a similar pace.6.50%4.00%3.00%2.50%Property+$583,445
Your assumptionsYou8.50%3.00%3.00%5.50%Property+$140,176
Long-run averageRoughly the post-war US record: equities well ahead of house prices over a full cycle.10.00%4.00%3.00%6.00%Invest-$106,159
Flat propertyPrices stall in nominal terms while the market carries on. The leverage that magnifies a gain magnifies this too.8.00%0.00%2.00%8.00%Invest-$437,590
Equity-ledThe market pulls away from property, as in the 2010s.12.00%2.00%2.50%10.00%Invest-$1,427,151

Only those three rates change between rows — your price, rent, mortgage and every cost are held exactly as you entered them. These are illustrative regimes chosen to span the decision, not forecasts and not probabilities. “Gap” is the return minus appreciation — the strongest single driver, and what orders these rows. It is not a shortcut for the answer: hold it fixed and change the price, the rent or the mortgage rate, and the verdict can still flip either way.

Where the line is

The same comparison across every combination of investment return and property appreciation. The useful thing here is not any single cell — it is how far you are from the boundary. If the nearest flip is several points away, the exact rate you assume does not matter much. If it is next door, it matters a great deal.

Appr. \ Return4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%8.50%9.00%10.00%11.00%
6.00%PPPPPPPPI
5.00%PPPPPPPPI
4.00%PPPPPPPII
3.00%PPPPPPPII
2.00%PPPPPPIII
1.00%PPPPPIIII
0.00%PPPPIIIII

At your 3.00% appreciation, the answer turns over at an investment return of about 10.00% — below that the property wins, above it investing does. You are at 8.50%. The exact figure for any cell is in its tooltip. 45 of 63 combinations favour the property.

Everything except these two rates is held as you entered it. P the property ends ahead   I investing ends ahead     your assumption.

Year by year

YearInvestorLandlordDifferenceProperty valueLoan balance
1$78,079$58,713-$19,366$267,800$193,019
2$86,200$68,389-$17,811$275,834$190,895
3$94,571$78,445-$16,126$284,109$188,618
4$103,200$88,899-$14,301$292,632$186,175
5$112,095$99,770-$12,325$301,411$183,557
6$121,623$111,436-$10,187$310,454$180,749
7$131,961$124,086-$7,875$319,767$177,737
8$143,178$137,803-$5,376$329,360$174,509
9$155,348$152,674-$2,675$339,241$171,047
10$168,553$168,796+$243$349,418$167,334
11$182,880$186,272+$3,393$359,901$163,353
12$198,425$205,217+$6,792$370,698$159,085
13$215,291$225,751+$10,461$381,819$154,508
14$233,590$248,007+$14,417$393,273$149,600
15$253,446$272,129+$18,683$405,072$144,337
16$274,988$298,271+$23,282$417,224$138,694
17$298,362$326,600+$28,238$429,740$132,642
18$323,723$357,301+$33,577$442,633$126,154
19$351,240$390,568+$39,328$455,912$119,196
20$381,095$426,616+$45,521$469,589$111,735
21$413,488$465,676+$52,188$483,677$103,735
22$448,635$507,999+$59,364$498,187$95,157
23$486,769$553,855+$67,086$513,132$85,958
24$528,144$603,539+$75,395$528,526$76,095
25$573,036$657,368+$84,332$544,382$65,518
26$621,744$715,688+$93,944$560,714$54,177
27$674,592$778,872+$104,280$577,535$42,016
28$731,933$847,325+$115,392$594,861$28,976
29$794,147$921,485+$127,338$612,707$14,994
30$861,650$1,001,826+$140,176$631,088$0

Assumptions in this run

Purchase price$260,000
Monthly rent$2,300 / mo
Rent to price0.88% of price / mo
Gross yield10.62%
Mortgage rate (note)7.00%
Down payment25.00%
Vacancy and bad debt6.00%
Property management8.00% of rent collected
Investment return8.50%
Property appreciation3.00%
Rent growth3.00%
Holding period30 years
Terminal assumptionsold at horizon (6.00% selling cost)
Costs tracking valueproperty tax
Investment taxnot modelled (pre-tax)
Property tax treatmentnot modelled — no depreciation, no recapture, no deductions

The same property, a different question

What this actually compares

Most rental-property calculators stop at cash flow: rent in, mortgage and expenses out, and a number at the bottom. That tells you whether the property feeds itself. It does not tell you whether buying it was a good use of the money, because it never asks what the money would have done somewhere else.

This model runs the obvious alternative alongside it. Both sides start with the same cash — your down payment plus closing costs. One buys the property. The other puts the whole amount in the market. Then, every month the property fails to pay for itself, the landlord writes a cheque and the investor contributes exactly the same amount. When the property throws off cash, the landlord invests it.

That matching rule is the whole point. Without it you are not comparing two uses of the same money, you are comparing two different amounts of money, and the answer is an artifact of the gap. The model checks the two lifetime totals against each other and refuses to report anything if they ever diverge.

Why leverage is the real story

A 25% down payment buys four dollars of property per dollar of your capital. Modest appreciation on the whole property becomes a large return on your slice of it, which is the thing that makes rentals compelling and the thing spreadsheets usually get right.

The same multiplier runs in reverse, and this is the part that gets left out. A fall in value is magnified against your equity in exactly the same proportion. Worse, the leverage is not optional: a portfolio can be left alone through a bad decade, but the mortgage payment is due every month whether the tenant pays or not. Set appreciation negative and watch what a 20% down payment does compared with a 60% one. That asymmetry is not a footnote to the comparison, it is the comparison.

The numbers landlords actually use

The summary reports the standard ratios, because they are how properties get screened and because each answers a different question:

Note that net operating income is calculated before debt service. That is the convention, and it is why a property can have a healthy cap rate and still bleed cash: the cap rate does not know what you paid for the mortgage.

The costs people leave out

The fastest way to make a rental look good on a spreadsheet is to forget what running one costs. The defaults here include the things that are easiest to omit:

What is deliberately missing

This is a pre-tax model, and for a rental property that caveat is heavier than it is for the other two calculators on this site. Depreciation shelters income you genuinely received; recapture claws part of it back when you sell; interest and operating costs are deductible; passive loss rules can defer the benefit for years. Those effects do not cancel, and which way they net out depends on your bracket, your state and how long you hold.

Read the result as the pre-tax economics, which is a real and useful thing to know, and then talk to somebody about the tax. The methodology page lists every omission.